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SFRs bought in 2005-2007 in San Francisco in the the following neighborhoods;

  • Silver Terrace
  • Bayview
  • Bayview Heights
  • Hunters Point
  • Visitacion Valley
  • Portola
  • Excelsior
  • Mission Terrace
  • Outer Mission
  • Cocker Amazon
  • Oceanview
  • Ingleside
  • Ingleside Hts
  • Merced Heights

SFRs bought in 2005-2007 in San Mateo County in the following communities;

  • Pacifica
  • Daly City
  • San Bruno (east/north of El Camino Real)
  • South San Francisco
  • San Mateo (east/north of Hwy 101)
  • Redwood City (east/north of El Camino Real)
  • East Menlo Park
  • East Palo Alto

Most of the value declines have occured in the entry level homes in entry level neighborhoods and communities. Values have dropped between 10-40% since the peak levels of 2006-2007.

 

In San Francisco, the neighborhood of Bayview have been hit the hardest with Portola & Visitacion Valley closely following. Excelsion, Crocker-Amazon, Outer Mission & Mission Terrace have faired better, but are still down. My neighborhood of Oceanview, along with Ingelside Hts, Merced Hts and Sunnyside have also felt the pain.

 

In San Mateo County, all of Daly City and Pacifica have been affected. In South San Francisco and San Bruno, properties east of El Camino have been affected much more than the western sectors. Millbrae, Burlingame, Hillsborough, Belmont, Atherton, Menlo Park and San Carlos have held fairly well. In San Mateo, properties east of Hwy 101 have dipped noticeably while west of El Camino, values have held. Foster City and Redwood Shores have weakened a little, especially the condos. In Redwood City, east of El Camino have noticeably declined while the west side has faired much better.

 

Further down the peninsula, the trend for east of Hwy 101 properties declining more than the westside counterparts continues. All of East Palo Alto and East Menlo Park is noticeably down. All of Menlo Park and Palo Alto are strong, as well as Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Saratoga and Cupertino.

 

The condos are a mixed bag in all communities, with the lower-end being hit the hardest with the upper-end coasting along fine. The drop in values in condos is not location specific, rather a factor of the price point and product line. For example, lofts in SOMA have fallen while high-rise units in the same area have held.

 

While there have been overall drops in the medians and means, some areas and product lines have actually increased in value over the same time period. One clear trend is that wherever there were easy loans, there is now the wreckage of foreclosures. Some product lines, such as TICs in San Francisco, have always had difficult financing options. That difficulty kept the market from becoming overbloated with uqualified buyers, keeping the prices affordable. Now, there is less drop in TIC values than in some large southside condo projects that had easier financing in the last 5 years. 

 

The co-existence of contrary trends amongst the many micro-markets of this metro area cause the overall rates to be skewed. Most of San Francisco and the Silicon Valley have experienced stable values. While marketing periods and inventories have increased, there is little evidence of value declines. Some areas and product lines, primarily the upper end, have experienced increases in values. The areas that have declined, have declined substantially. The small number of sales of high-end increasing properties is skewed by the numerous fire sales in the entry levels, causing the overall numbers to be unreliable.